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A scary-looking weather forecast showing a hurricane hitting the Gulf Coast in the second half of June swirled around social media this week—but don’t panic.
It’s the season’s first “ghost hurricane.”
Similar hype plays out every hurricane season, especially at the beginning: A cherry-picked, worst-case-scenario model run goes viral, but more often than not, will never come to fruition.
Unofficially dubbed “ghost storms” or “ghost hurricanes,” these tropical systems regularly appear in weather models — computer simulations that help meteorologists forecast future conditions — but never seem to manifest in real life.
The model responsible this week was the Global Forecast System, also known as the GFS or American model, run by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. It’s one of many used by forecasters around the world.
All models have known biases or “quirks” where they tend to overpredict or underpredict certain things. The GFS is known to overpredict tropical storms and hurricanes in longer-term forecasts that look more than a week into the future, which leads to these false alarms. The GFS isn’t alone in this — all models struggle to accurately predict tropical activity that far in advance — but it is notorious for doing so.
For example, the GFS could spit out a prediction for a US hurricane landfall about 10 days from now, only to have that chance completely disappear as the forecast date draws closer. This can occur at any time of the year, but is most frequent during hurricane season — June through November.
It’s exactly what’s been happening over the past week as forecasters keep an eye out for the first storm of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season.
Why so many ghosts?
No weather forecast model is designed in the exact same way as another, and that’s why each can generate different results with similar data.
The reason the GFS has more false alarms when looking more than a week out than similar models – like Europe’s ECMWF, Canada’s CMC or the United Kingdom’s UKM – is because that’s exactly what it’s programmed to do, according to Alicia Bentley, the global verification project lead of NOAA’s Environmental Modeling Center.
The GFS was built with a “weak parameterized cumulus convection scheme,” according to Bentley. In plain language, that means when the GFS thinks there could be thunderstorms developing in an area where tropical systems are possible – over the oceans – it’s more likely to jump to the conclusion that something tropical will develop than to ignore it.
Other models aren’t built to be quite as sensitive to this phenomenon, and so they don’t show a tropical system until they’re more confident the right conditions are in place, which usually happens when the forecast gets closer in time.
The western Caribbean Sea is one of the GFS’ favorite places to predict a ghost storm. That’s because of the Central American gyre: a large, disorganized area of showers and thunderstorms that rotates over the region and its surrounding water.
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“Women who drank one to three cups of caffeinated coffee per day in their 50s were more likely to reach older age free from major chronic diseases and with good cognitive, physical, and mental health,” said lead study author Dr. Sarah Mahdavi, adjunct professor in the faculty of medicine and department of nutritional sciences at the University of Toronto.
Researchers analyzed dietary data from more than 47,000 women who were part of the Nurses’ Health Study, according to the research released Monday at the annual meeting of the American Society for Nutrition in Orlando. The study was presented as an abstract, but a more in-depth manuscript of the investigation will be submitted for peer review in the coming months, Mahdavi said.
“In this study, we found that moderate caffeinated coffee consumption during midlife was associated with a higher likelihood of healthy aging 30 years later,” Mahdavi said.
It’s not just any caffeinated drink
The effects were found in caffeinated coffee in particular, according to the research. The same link was not found for tea or decaffeinated coffee — and drinking more cola or other caffeinated sodas was tied to a lower chance of healthy aging.
“This would imply that coffee in particular has health preserving or promoting effects,” said Dr. David Kao, Jacqueline Marie Schauble Leaffer Endowed Chair in Women’s Heart Disease and associate professor of medicine at the University of Colorado Anschutz Medical School in an email. “As with other studies, they also appear to have found that coffee has a particular benefit over other caffeinated drinks.”
That said, the research is high quality, added Kao, who was not involved in the research.
The study is also observational, meaning it is limited in its ability to examine direct cause and effect. The new research can only show that a behavior and an outcome are more likely to occur together.
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Appreciate it!
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There’s a ‘ghost hurricane’ in the forecast. It could help predict a real one
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A scary-looking weather forecast showing a hurricane hitting the Gulf Coast in the second half of June swirled around social media this week—but don’t panic.
It’s the season’s first “ghost hurricane.”
Similar hype plays out every hurricane season, especially at the beginning: A cherry-picked, worst-case-scenario model run goes viral, but more often than not, will never come to fruition.
Unofficially dubbed “ghost storms” or “ghost hurricanes,” these tropical systems regularly appear in weather models — computer simulations that help meteorologists forecast future conditions — but never seem to manifest in real life.
The model responsible this week was the Global Forecast System, also known as the GFS or American model, run by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. It’s one of many used by forecasters around the world.
All models have known biases or “quirks” where they tend to overpredict or underpredict certain things. The GFS is known to overpredict tropical storms and hurricanes in longer-term forecasts that look more than a week into the future, which leads to these false alarms. The GFS isn’t alone in this — all models struggle to accurately predict tropical activity that far in advance — but it is notorious for doing so.
For example, the GFS could spit out a prediction for a US hurricane landfall about 10 days from now, only to have that chance completely disappear as the forecast date draws closer. This can occur at any time of the year, but is most frequent during hurricane season — June through November.
It’s exactly what’s been happening over the past week as forecasters keep an eye out for the first storm of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season.
Why so many ghosts?
No weather forecast model is designed in the exact same way as another, and that’s why each can generate different results with similar data.
The reason the GFS has more false alarms when looking more than a week out than similar models – like Europe’s ECMWF, Canada’s CMC or the United Kingdom’s UKM – is because that’s exactly what it’s programmed to do, according to Alicia Bentley, the global verification project lead of NOAA’s Environmental Modeling Center.
The GFS was built with a “weak parameterized cumulus convection scheme,” according to Bentley. In plain language, that means when the GFS thinks there could be thunderstorms developing in an area where tropical systems are possible – over the oceans – it’s more likely to jump to the conclusion that something tropical will develop than to ignore it.
Other models aren’t built to be quite as sensitive to this phenomenon, and so they don’t show a tropical system until they’re more confident the right conditions are in place, which usually happens when the forecast gets closer in time.
The western Caribbean Sea is one of the GFS’ favorite places to predict a ghost storm. That’s because of the Central American gyre: a large, disorganized area of showers and thunderstorms that rotates over the region and its surrounding water.
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“Women who drank one to three cups of caffeinated coffee per day in their 50s were more likely to reach older age free from major chronic diseases and with good cognitive, physical, and mental health,” said lead study author Dr. Sarah Mahdavi, adjunct professor in the faculty of medicine and department of nutritional sciences at the University of Toronto.
Researchers analyzed dietary data from more than 47,000 women who were part of the Nurses’ Health Study, according to the research released Monday at the annual meeting of the American Society for Nutrition in Orlando. The study was presented as an abstract, but a more in-depth manuscript of the investigation will be submitted for peer review in the coming months, Mahdavi said.
“In this study, we found that moderate caffeinated coffee consumption during midlife was associated with a higher likelihood of healthy aging 30 years later,” Mahdavi said.
It’s not just any caffeinated drink
The effects were found in caffeinated coffee in particular, according to the research. The same link was not found for tea or decaffeinated coffee — and drinking more cola or other caffeinated sodas was tied to a lower chance of healthy aging.
“This would imply that coffee in particular has health preserving or promoting effects,” said Dr. David Kao, Jacqueline Marie Schauble Leaffer Endowed Chair in Women’s Heart Disease and associate professor of medicine at the University of Colorado Anschutz Medical School in an email. “As with other studies, they also appear to have found that coffee has a particular benefit over other caffeinated drinks.”
That said, the research is high quality, added Kao, who was not involved in the research.
The study is also observational, meaning it is limited in its ability to examine direct cause and effect. The new research can only show that a behavior and an outcome are more likely to occur together.
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